I’m re-posting a blog I just dropped on Finextra, which follows.
Javelin certainly agrees that mobile payments and finance is set to take off, but I see this driving network-branded (“card”) payments higher on a global basis rather than lower. This discussion reminds me of the 1990’s argument that the “new economy” would spell the death of brands, which if anything has led to exactly the opposite effect. The more far-flung and ubiquitous your transaction patterns are, the more you value the trust and convenience of branded payments. Certainly the pattern changes, just as EBay has enabled the success of micro-merchants by enabling buyer ratings systems (a defacto network branding scheme for the masses). Will interchange and other fee models have to adapt? Certainly. But as mobile payments expand payments capabilities around the globe (and eventually leave non-electronic payments in the age of the Templar Knights) network brands become even more important.