2010 Online Retail Payments Update and Forecast: Shift in Consumer Payment Behavior - A Temporary Reaction or a New Reality?
|2010 Online Retail Payments Update and Forecast|
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- What are the major trends for domestic e‐commerce payment transactions?
- How will traditional online payments vehicles – credit and debit cards – fare as new payment options are introduced and new regulations influence consumer preferences?
- Will credit card usage rebound from recessionary levels, or will debit cards continue to grow toward becoming consumers’ top‐of‐wallet choice?
- What factors influence consumer adoption and the use of various payment options for online purchasing?
- How has consumer receptivity to online purchasing changed over time, and how will it continue to evolve?
Using data collected online by Javelin in September 2010 from a random‐sample panel of 4,998 consumers, the survey targeted respondents based on representative proportions of gender, age, and income compared to the overall U.S. online population. In 2009, the U.S. population was estimated to comprise 306 million people, including 232 million adults and 168 million online adults.1 Overall margin of sampling error is ±1.39% at the 95% confidence level.
Secondary data from public sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was incorporated into the forecast. The forecast was derived using a combination of personal income forecasts from the OMB and BEA. The ratio of total retail to personal income was also drawn from these studies.
The total online retail payment volume was derived through survey results and a reweighting by payment type based on regularly revised U.S. Census e‐commerce data, U.S. online travel purchase estimates (based on BEA data), and publically available payments activity data from major service providers (e.g. Visa, MasterCard, Discover, American Express, eBay). The reweighting maintains survey integrity while anchoring the forecast to concrete market data developed by secondary sources. Prior years were also reweighted to maintain accurate trendability.
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