The logjam preventing widespread adoption of real-time payments is going to be smashed in 2016 with growing adoption of mobile P2P. While banks and NACHA have been talking about delivering real-time payment functionality for the past several years, the demand for real-time funds availability from mobile P2P transactions is going to be the killer app that finally delivers. More than 82 million adult consumers will make a mobile P2P transaction in 2016, increasing to 126 million by 2020 — representing almost half of all adults. The demand to use funds immediately will drive the financial services industry to deliver. Payments networks such as FIS People Pay, Fiserv Popmoney, and clearXchange are all in position to deliver on that reality now or starting in 2016.

What to Look For

More nonindustry players will enter the mobile P2P market, including the major “pays” such as Samsung Pay, Apple Pay, and Android Pay, further driving additional pressure on existing players. Existing networks such as FIS People Pay6 and Fiserv Popmoney that currently or are planning in 2016 to offer real-time payments for a price, will go to a low price or free model as a way to further gain share or defend against nonindustry players such as Apple, Facebook, and Snapchat. Same-day ACH becomes a reality in September 2016 and will be used by banks and nonbanks alike to drive near real-time payments.


Key Business Considerations: What Does It Mean?


  • Customer expectations: Current P2P service providers will need to deliver on real-time funds availability both within and outside their networks or fear dwindling customer usage.
  • FI infrastructure: FIs that have P2P integrated into their bill pay services will be forced to extend real-time funds transfer to bill pay or else give the appearance of a poorly built two-tier system.
  • Revenue opportunity: Many existing P2P services are free or low cost today, but do not offer real-time funds availability, so they may be a short-term profit opportunity for FIs in the early days of real-time funds transfer.
  • Industry differentiation: Since real-time payments require the leveraging of an FI network, there may be an opportunity for FIs to differentiate themselves in mobile P2P from the social networks offering P2P (e.g., Facebook and Snapcash).

About Michael Moeser

Michael is the JAVELIN’s Director of Payments. He advises clients on the rapidly changing payments industry. Michael is focused on tracking the evolution of the payments industry, covering specific areas such as person-to-person payments, U.S. and global EMV card migration, digital wallets, merchant acceptance of different payment forms, cross-border payments, real-time transactions, and digital payments.

Michael specializes in assisting clients in developing new payment products or repositioning existing services to capitalize on market opportunities, understanding how to market to particular consumer and small business market segments, and developing new corporate strategies that can transform an existing payments franchise.

Michael brings over 20 years of experience from the payments and consulting industries. Before joining JAVELIN, he led the international small business card portfolio at Visa, launching new and growing existing debit and credit card programs with banks and financial services companies across the globe. Previously, he was the Head of Competitive Intelligence at Capital One, a Payments Knowledge Expert at McKinsey’s Payments Practice, and the Head of Product Marketing at Ondot Systems, a Silicon Valley mobile card control startup. He has presented to audiences around the globe, primarily at Visa and McKinsey client and public audiences.

Michael holds a BBA in finance from the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan and an MBA in marketing and entrepreneurship from the Kellstadt Graduate School of Business at DePaul University.

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